Sevilla vs Osasuna: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sevillavs
OsasunaThe model puts Sevilla at 47%. The model leans toward Sevilla. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Osasuna.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Sevilla have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Osasuna have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sevilla have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sevilla is priced at 1.95.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 14 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sevilla at 47%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Osasuna at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Sevilla. Sevilla is priced at 1.95. The draw is priced at 3.46. Osasuna is priced at 3.96.
Sevilla have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Osasuna have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sevilla have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Osasuna have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sevilla average 2 goals per game this season. Sevilla average 49% possession.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 41% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sevilla or Osasuna?
Our model rates Sevilla as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Osasuna?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Sevilla wins, 5 draws, 5 Osasuna wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 34:7 | 24 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:8 | 19 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14:9 | 19 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 19:8 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12:15 | 13 |
| 7 |  Deportivo Alaves | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12:8 | 11 |
| 8 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13:12 | 11 |
| 9 |  Celta | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8:6 | 8 |
| 10 |  Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 8 |
| 11 |  Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13:13 | 8 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11:11 | 8 |
| 13 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:16 | 8 |
| 14 |  Getafe | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4:10 | 8 |
| 15 |  Racing de Santander | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13:23 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:18 | 8 |
| 17 |  Levante UD | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12:16 | 7 |
| 18 |  Elche | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11:17 | 6 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6:15 | 5 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4:13 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.