USA. MLS

Atlanta United vs Chicago Fire: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Atlanta Unitedvs

Chicago Fire

Our predictionChicago Fire to win

Model score: Medium · 38/100

Score hint: 1-2

The model puts Chicago Fire at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Chicago Fire.
+Chicago Fire score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
−Atlanta United creates more chances (13 vs 11 shots per game).
−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
+Atlanta United are dealing with notable absentees.
−Chicago Fire are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Atlanta United35%

Draw23%

2 · Chicago Fire42%

1 · Atlanta UnitedDraw2 · Chicago Fire

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.90+6.6%

O/U 2.5Under 2.52.67+5.8%

1X2Chicago Fire2.42+3.0%

1X2Atlanta United2.65-0.9%

1X2Draw3.80-2.1%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Atlanta UnitedLWLLW

Chicago FireWWWDW

Expected goals

1.50Atlanta United

1.57Chicago Fire

Over 2.5 goals59%

Both teams to score61%

Team strength rating

Atlanta United

Chicago Fire

Most likely scorelines

1-111.0%

1-28.6%

2-18.2%

0-17.3%

1-07.0%

2-26.4%

Match DNA

Atlanta United Chicago Fire

Key points

Atlanta United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Chicago Fire have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
Atlanta United have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
Atlanta United will be without Chica, Reilly W..
Chicago Fire will be without Elliott J., Lod R., Rogers S., Russo Franco.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Chicago Fire win2.42Fair (+3.0%)

Double chanceChicago Fire or draw—Info

Total goalsOver 2.51.44Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	5	7	6	3	1
1	7	11	9	4	2
2	5	8	6	3	1
3	3	4	3	2
4		2	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Atlanta United at 35%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Chicago Fire at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.

The market frames this as a close contest. Atlanta United is priced at 2.645. The draw is priced at 3.8. Chicago Fire is priced at 2.425.

Atlanta United have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Chicago Fire have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.

Atlanta United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Chicago Fire have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Chicago Fire are on 3 wins in a row.

Atlanta United average 1 goals per game this season. Atlanta United average 54% possession. Chicago Fire average 2 goals per game this season. Chicago Fire average 50% possession.

The model gives 61% for both teams to score. The model gives 59% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Atlanta United or Chicago Fire?

Our model rates Chicago Fire as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Atlanta United vs Chicago Fire?

A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 5 Atlanta United wins, 4 draws, 6 Chicago Fire wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Odds movement

Home 2.65 Draw 3.80 Away 2.42

Match statistics

Player of the matchSaletros A.Chicago Fire7.8

Atlanta United

Starting XI

1Hoyos L.6.0
3Baez5.9
6Alonso Ju.5.9
8Muyumba6.0
10Almiron6.4
11Galoppo G.6.4
14Amaro6.4
27Dias P.6.5
36Embolo6.8
55Jakob6.5
59Miranchuk A.7.5

Unavailable

Chica (Missing Player)
Reilly W. (Questionable)

Coach: Gerardo Martino

Chicago Fire

Starting XI

1Brady6.6
4Mbokazi7.4
6Saletros A.7.8
7Haile Selassie7.0
9Lewandowski6.2
11Zinckernagel6.5
15Gutman A.6.7
19Bamba J.7.2
21Hanche-Olsen7.2
24Dean5.9
42Davilla6.8

Unavailable

Elliott J. (Missing Player)
Lod R. (Missing Player)
Rogers S. (Questionable)
Russo Franco (Questionable)

Coach: Berhalter

League table

USA. MLS

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	16	7	7	63:31	55
2	St. Louis City	30	14	7	9	56:41	51
3	Dallas	30	14	7	9	55:47	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	13	8	9	52:42	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	13	9	8	41:39	47
6	Los Angeles	31	12	9	10	48:33	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	11	10	9	39:37	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	10	11	10	43:52	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	11	13	6	41:41	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	10	14	6	45:48	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	9	14	7	51:56	34
12	San Diego	30	8	12	10	53:56	34
13	Minnesota United	30	8	12	10	47:55	34
14	Austin	30	7	13	10	38:56	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	6	20	4	36:75	22