Legia Warsaw vs Lech Poznan: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Legia Warsawvs
Lech PoznanThe model puts Lech Poznan at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Legia Warsaw are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Lech Poznan are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Legia Warsaw have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lech Poznan have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Legia Warsaw have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Legia Warsaw will be without Zewlakow, Vinagre Ru..
- Lech Poznan will be without Douglas, Monka, Moutinho Jo., Gholizadeh, Gumny R., Sayyad.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Legia Warsaw at 37%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Lech Poznan at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Legia Warsaw is priced at 2.55. The draw is priced at 3.44. Lech Poznan is priced at 2.48.
Legia Warsaw have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Lech Poznan have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
Legia Warsaw have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Lech Poznan have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Legia Warsaw or Lech Poznan?
Our model rates Lech Poznan as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Legia Warsaw vs Lech Poznan?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Legia Warsaw wins, 6 draws, 4 Lech Poznan wins.
League table
Poland. Ekstraklasa| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gornik Zabrze | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21:11 | 27 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 27:9 | 25 |
| 3 | Legia Warsaw | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 22:9 | 23 |
| 4 |  Pogon Szczecin | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15:6 | 21 |
| 5 |  Piast Gliwice | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22:18 | 20 |
| 6 |  Zaglebie Lubin | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15:15 | 19 |
| 7 |  Katowice | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 22:17 | 18 |
| 8 |  Wisla Krakow | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17:14 | 18 |
| 9 |  Korona Kielce | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 14:18 | 18 |
| 10 |  Wisla PLock | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10:15 | 14 |
| 11 |  Motor Lublin | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 17:21 | 13 |
| 12 |  Jagiellonia Bialystok | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 13:17 | 12 |
| 13 |  KS Cracovia | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14:19 | 12 |
| 14 |  Widzew Lodz | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 15:16 | 11 |
| 15 |  Wieczysta Krakow | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 16:21 | 8 |
| 16 |  RKS Radomiak Radom | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 9:24 | 8 |
| 17 |  Slask Wroclaw | 11 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 14:22 | 6 |
| 18 |  Rakow Czestochowa | 11 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 15:26 | 6 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.