Rayo Vallecano vs Celta: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Rayo Vallecanovs
CeltaThe model puts Rayo Vallecano at 44%. The model leans toward Rayo Vallecano. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Rayo Vallecano.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Rayo Vallecano have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Celta have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Rayo Vallecano is priced at 2.24.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 3 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Rayo Vallecano at 44%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Celta at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Rayo Vallecano. Rayo Vallecano is priced at 2.24. The draw is priced at 3.38. Celta is priced at 3.2.
Rayo Vallecano have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Celta have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
Rayo Vallecano have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Celta have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Rayo Vallecano average 1 goals per game this season. Rayo Vallecano average 51% possession.
The model gives 34% for both teams to score. The model gives 27% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Rayo Vallecano or Celta?
Our model rates Rayo Vallecano as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Celta?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Rayo Vallecano wins, 6 draws, 4 Celta wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 39:9 | 27 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19:8 | 22 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23:9 | 21 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 16:14 | 19 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17:17 | 16 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 14:16 | 14 |
| 7 |  Deportivo Alaves | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13:10 | 11 |
| 8 | Celta | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10:7 | 11 |
| 9 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13:12 | 11 |
| 10 |  Osasuna | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10:18 | 11 |
| 11 |  Levante UD | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 15:17 | 10 |
| 12 |  Villarreal | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13:13 | 9 |
| 13 |  Athletic Bilbao | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:9 | 9 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:17 | 9 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Espanyol | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 11:12 | 8 |
| 17 |  Racing de Santander | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13:25 | 8 |
| 18 |  Elche | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11:17 | 7 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6:15 | 6 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 6:18 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.