Sunderland vs Chelsea: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sunderlandvs
ChelseaThe model puts Chelsea at 52%. The model leans toward Chelsea. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Chelsea.
- +Chelsea score more per game (0.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours Chelsea (5-1-9).
- +Chelsea creates more chances (13 vs 15 shots per game).
- +Sunderland are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Chelsea are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Sunderland have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chelsea have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sunderland have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sunderland will be without Diarra, Mundle, Ballard D., Alderete O., Mukiele.
- Chelsea will be without Pedro J., Lacroix M., Gittens, James R., Chavarria, Martinez Dam..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sunderland at 25%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Chelsea at 52%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Chelsea. Sunderland is priced at 3.5. The draw is priced at 3.66. Chelsea is priced at 2.02.
Sunderland have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Chelsea have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sunderland have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Chelsea have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sunderland average 0 goals per game this season. Sunderland average 49% possession. Chelsea average 2 goals per game this season. Chelsea average 49% possession.
The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 36% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sunderland or Chelsea?
Our model rates Chelsea as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Chelsea?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Sunderland wins, 1 draws, 9 Chelsea wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Sunderland
- 4Danso K.
- 9Brobbey
- 10Angulo
- 11Rigg
- 13O'Nien
- 17Mandava R.
- 22Roefs
- 27Sadiki
- 28Le Fee E.
- 32Hume
- 34Xhaka
- Diarra (2)
- Mundle (2)
- Ballard D. (2)
- Alderete O. (2)
- Mukiele (3)
Chelsea
- 3Fofana
- 6Colwill L.
- 7Neto Pe.
- 10Palmer C.
- 14Henderson
- 17Rogers M.
- 29Chavarria
- 34Acheampong
- 39Penders
- 41Estevao
- 45Lavia
- Pedro J. (2)
- Lacroix M. (2)
- Gittens (2)
- James R. (2)
- Chavarria (3)
- Martinez Dam. (3)
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 15:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21:13 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Everton | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 8 |  Leeds United | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 10 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 11 |  Newcastle United | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 12 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11:11 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich Town | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10:12 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9:13 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry City | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 19 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 7:17 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.