Manchester United vs Aston Villa: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Manchester Unitedvs
Aston VillaThe model puts Manchester United at 52%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Manchester United score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours Manchester United (9-3-3).
- +Recent form favours Aston Villa.
- +Manchester United creates more chances (20 vs 12 shots per game).
- +Manchester United controls more of the ball (57% vs 47%).
- −Manchester United are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Manchester United take 20 shots per game.
- Manchester United average 2 goals per game this season.
- Manchester United have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Manchester United will be without Baleba, Sesko B., Ugarte M., Shaw L., Martinez, Dorgu, Rashford M..
- The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
Manchester United average 2 goals per game this season. Aston Villa average 1 goals per game this season. Manchester United take 20 shots per game. Aston Villa take 12 shots per game.
Manchester United average 57% possession. Aston Villa average 47% possession.
Manchester United have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Aston Villa have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Manchester United will be without Baleba, Sesko B., Ugarte M., Shaw L., Martinez, Dorgu, Rashford M.. Aston Villa will be without Onana, Ruggeri M., Cash, Wan-Bissaka.
Manchester United is priced at 2.13. Aston Villa is priced at 3.08. The market leans toward Manchester United.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Manchester United or Aston Villa?
Our model rates Manchester United as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Manchester United wins, 3 draws, 3 Aston Villa wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Manchester United
- 1Lammens
- 2Dalot D.
- 5Maguire
- 8Fernandes Br.
- 10Cunha M.
- 15Yoro
- 16Diallo
- 17Santos A.
- 18Tielemans
- 19Mbeumo
- 26Heaven A.
- Baleba (2)
- Sesko B. (2)
- Ugarte M. (2)
- Shaw L. (2)
- Martinez (2)
- Dorgu (3)
- Rashford M. (3)
Aston Villa
- 1Suzuki Z.
- 3Lindelof
- 5Mings
- 7McGinn J.
- 8Kamara Bou.
- 11Jackson
- 19Mbaye
- 22Maatsen I.
- 29Wan-Bissaka
- 35Gomes da Silva
- 44Manzambi
- Onana (2)
- Ruggeri M. (2)
- Cash (2)
- Wan-Bissaka (3)
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 15:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21:13 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Everton | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 8 |  Leeds United | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 10 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 11 |  Newcastle United | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11:11 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich Town | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10:12 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9:13 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry City | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 19 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 7:17 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.