Aston Villa vs Sunderland: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Aston Villavs
SunderlandThe model puts Aston Villa at 57%. The model leans toward Aston Villa. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Aston Villa (7-6-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Aston Villa have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sunderland have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Aston Villa have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Aston Villa is priced at 1.71.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 17 | 11 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Aston Villa at 57%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Sunderland at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Aston Villa. Aston Villa is priced at 1.71. The draw is priced at 4. Sunderland is priced at 4.54.
Aston Villa have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Sunderland have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
Aston Villa have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Sunderland have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Aston Villa average 1 goals per game this season. Aston Villa average 45% possession. Sunderland average 1 goals per game this season. Sunderland average 50% possession.
The model gives 37% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Aston Villa or Sunderland?
Our model rates Aston Villa as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Aston Villa wins, 6 draws, 2 Sunderland wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 15:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21:13 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Everton | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 8 |  Leeds United | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 10 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 11 |  Newcastle United | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11:11 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich Town | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10:12 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9:13 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry City | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 19 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 7:17 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.