Manchester City vs Fulham: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Manchester Cityvs
FulhamThe model puts Manchester City at 67%. The model leans toward Manchester City. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Manchester City (15-0-0).
- +Manchester City score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −Recent form favours Fulham.
- +Manchester City creates more chances (17 vs 12 shots per game).
- +Manchester City controls more of the ball (67% vs 55%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Manchester City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fulham have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Manchester City have won 15 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Manchester City is priced at 1.448.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Manchester City at 67%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Fulham at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Manchester City. Manchester City is priced at 1.448. The draw is priced at 4.84. Fulham is priced at 6.4.
Manchester City have won 15 of the head-to-head meetings.
Manchester City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Fulham have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Manchester City average 2 goals per game this season. Manchester City average 67% possession. Fulham average 1 goals per game this season. Fulham average 55% possession.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Manchester City or Fulham?
Our model rates Manchester City as the most likely outcome at 67% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Manchester City vs Fulham?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 15 Manchester City wins, 0 draws, 0 Fulham wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 15:5 | 27 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21:13 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Everton | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 8 |  Leeds United | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 10 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 11 |  Newcastle United | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 12 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11:11 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich Town | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10:12 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9:13 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry City | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 19 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 7:17 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.