Athletic Bilbao vs Espanyol: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Athletic Bilbaovs
EspanyolThe model puts Athletic Bilbao at 64%. The model leans toward Athletic Bilbao. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Athletic Bilbao.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Athletic Bilbao have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Espanyol have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Athletic Bilbao have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Athletic Bilbao is priced at 1.488.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Athletic Bilbao at 64%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Espanyol at 13%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Athletic Bilbao. Athletic Bilbao is priced at 1.488. The draw is priced at 4.3. Espanyol is priced at 6.7.
Athletic Bilbao have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Espanyol have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Athletic Bilbao have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Espanyol have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Espanyol average 3 goals per game this season. Espanyol average 54% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Athletic Bilbao or Espanyol?
Our model rates Athletic Bilbao as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Athletic Bilbao vs Espanyol?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Athletic Bilbao wins, 5 draws, 5 Espanyol wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 31:10 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17:19 | 18 |
| 7 | Athletic Bilbao | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15:11 | 16 |
| 8 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15:14 | 15 |
| 9 |  Racing de Santander | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 17:30 | 14 |
| 10 |  Deportivo Alaves | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15:17 | 13 |
| 11 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 12 |  Celta | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 13:14 | 12 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 12:23 | 12 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante UD | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 8:20 | 9 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 12 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 9:23 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.