Sunderland vs Leeds United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sunderlandvs
Leeds UnitedThe model puts Leeds United at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Leeds United.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sunderland have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Leeds United have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sunderland have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Leeds United is priced at 2.54.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Sunderland at 33%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Leeds United at 39%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Sunderland is priced at 2.795. The draw is priced at 3.3. Leeds United is priced at 2.54.
Sunderland have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Leeds United have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sunderland have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Leeds United have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Leeds United are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sunderland or Leeds United?
Our model rates Leeds United as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Leeds United?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Sunderland wins, 4 draws, 6 Leeds United wins.
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16:5 | 18 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10:5 | 15 |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18:5 | 13 |
| 4 |  Brentford | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12:6 | 10 |
| 5 |  Everton | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8:5 | 10 |
| 6 |  Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15:13 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8:5 | 9 |
| 8 |  Hull City | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8:6 | 9 |
| 9 |  Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:7 | 9 |
| 10 |  Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 11 |  Newcastle United | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10:13 | 8 |
| 12 |  Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9:12 | 7 |
| 13 |  Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9:9 | 6 |
| 14 |  Coventry City | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5:11 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 16 |  Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6:11 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6:12 | 4 |
| 18 |  Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7:13 | 3 |
| 19 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3:9 | 3 |
| 20 |  Fulham | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6:10 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.