Newcastle United vs Everton: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Newcastle Unitedvs
EvertonThe model puts Newcastle United at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Everton.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Newcastle United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Everton have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Newcastle United have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Newcastle United is priced at 2.184.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Newcastle United at 42%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Everton at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Newcastle United. Newcastle United is priced at 2.184. The draw is priced at 3.64. Everton is priced at 3.12.
Newcastle United have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Everton have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Newcastle United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Everton have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Newcastle United average 2 goals per game this season. Newcastle United average 52% possession. Everton average 1 goals per game this season. Everton average 39% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Newcastle United or Everton?
Our model rates Newcastle United as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Newcastle United vs Everton?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Newcastle United wins, 3 draws, 6 Everton wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19:7 | 21 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 11:5 | 18 |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23:5 | 16 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17:13 | 13 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9:8 | 12 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 13:8 | 10 |
| 7 |  Leeds United | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9:6 | 10 |
| 8 | Everton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8:7 | 10 |
| 9 |  Hull City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | 9 |
| 10 |  Ipswich Town | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11:15 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10:14 | 8 |
| 12 |  Aston Villa | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7:11 | 8 |
| 13 |  Manchester United | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10:10 | 7 |
| 14 |  Crystal Palace | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9:17 | 7 |
| 15 |  Bournemouth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9:13 | 6 |
| 16 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:10 | 6 |
| 17 |  Coventry City | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6:14 | 6 |
| 18 |  Fulham | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7:10 | 5 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5:9 | 5 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 6:14 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.